The New Year is finally here. We’ve made it past Ryan Seacrest’s Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve (Seacrest is a no talent hack for those of you looking for my opinion), and professional football is about to kick-off its second season (more commonly known as the NFL Playoffs). Since the beginning of the NFL Playoffs signals the end of the fantasy football season – and I’d like to thank Matthew Stafford for leading my team to the title – it is time for us to transition our fantasy focus to the upcoming baseball season. I know what you are thinking, besides the fact that if Seacrest were to suddenly disappear nobody without the last name Seacrest would miss him, and it’s too early to prepare for fantasy baseball. If these are the feelings you harbor, outside of total disgust for Seacrest, then stop reading this blog now. If you want to win your fantasy baseball league, please continue…
There has been much change in MLB lineups since the end of the World Series, and here is a review of the how the 3 biggest name offensive free agents will do on their new teams:
Albert Pujols Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (.299 AVG, 37 HR and 99 RBI)
Once you get past the mouthful that is his new team’s name (do we REALLY need two cities in the name of one team?), you probably won’t be as enthusiastic about this move unless your last name is Pujols. Sure $254 million is a nice chunk of change, but that money will not help you win your fantasy league. The move to the AL West for Pujols will not improve his offensive statistics; ergo will not help you perform better in your league. He is moving into a ballpark (Angel Stadium) which saw 86 less runs scored in it than the park he is leaving (Busch Stadium). Now that may not seem like a lot, but considering that Pujols is generally good for roughly 15% of his team’s total runs scored (when factoring RBI and Runs Scored) he may lose about 10-15 runs scored and 10-15 RBI per season versus having stayed in St. Louis. Additionally, the Cardinals were ranked 5th in runs scored for the entire league last season and the Angels were 17th (a cool 100 runs behind the Cardinals). While Pujols certainly had a lot to do with that, the Angels offense is clearly inferior and Pujols will play most of his division away games at two of the worst hitter’s ballparks in the big leagues (Safeco Field in Seattle and the Oakland Coliseum). Couple that with the 81 games at Angel Stadium and it’s hard to argue his numbers will suffer. While he will probably still be the number one pick in your draft, this is the first year in almost a decade where he’s not a sure bet to be the best player in baseball.
Jose Reyes Miami Marlins (.337 AVG, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 39 SB and 16 Triples):
Anytime you speak of Reyes you have to begin with his well-documented injury problems. Yes, he has missed some games over the last 3 seasons, but most of those games missed came in 2009 when he was out for ¾ of the year. The last two years he has played in 133 (2010) and 126 (2011). From 2005-2008 he was a relative iron man, only missing a total of 15 games over those four seasons. The last couple “injury prone” years have also coincided with the Mets being a well below average team, and an inclination to coddle their star shortstop’s hamstring injuries. The move to South Florida should be a bonanza for Reyes, who moves to a much warmer climate (better for those hamstrings than the cold Spring and Fall of New York) and into a lineup that will surely take better advantage of his offensive skills. Outside of Reyes and David Wright, there is not elite level production rampant on the Mets lineup. That lack of production, and the fact that Citi Field is the 6th worst hitters ballpark in the majors, led to a lot of Reyes’ trips on-base to be wasted in New York. Putting Reyes atop the Miami lineup has Hanley Ramirez (best all-around player in baseball before last season), Gaby Sanchez (All-Star last season), Mike Stanton (56 HR in a season and a half) and Logan Morrison (23 HR and 72 RBI in 123 games last year) all batting behind him and all being quite capable of 100 RBI. This team has a chance to be one of the better run scorers in the NL and Reyes will be setting the table leading off in Miami. Assuming he plays in 140 games, a stat-line of .330 AVG/10 HR/115 Runs/60 RBI/45 SB is not out of the question. He should be the first SS drafted after Troy Tulowitzki.
We are still waiting on Prince Fielder to sign with a team (current rumors have him headed to the Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers or Seattle Mariners). Once he officially signs somewhere, I’ll be able to give a more definitive perspective for his 2012 performance as the three rumored suitors will offer him drastically different supporting casts and ballparks.
Check out this great article by Cliff Corcoran, of SI.com, on how Carlos Beltran fits with the Cards (click here).
